> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.web3-advertising.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # We don't guess - URL: https://www.web3-advertising.com/we-dont-guess/ - Published: 2026-10-02T10:56:13.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-02T10:56:13.000Z - Description: Our targeting runs on what wallets have actually done. - Author: Wayne Hattingh A lot of the ads crypto projects pay for are a guess. Whether it's an ad on X, a KOL engagement, or a banner on a crypto news site, they all go out to people who might fit the profile, based on the box the algorithm's dropped them in. Might. But we don't guess about that. **To us, a user is a wallet, and what that wallet's actually done.** Be it a swap, a loan, a bridge, or a stake. It doesn't really matter, because it's all there onchain and none of it needs guessing. If a wallet has already used products like the one being advertised, that's proof of what they want. And they've already crossed a big hurdle that a brand new user hasn't. They've used something like it before. So the barrier to trying yours is much lower. We only show an ad when someone has connected their wallet inside an app we work with. That's when the ad goes out to the user, in that moment. So we know for a fact it's a real web3 user who's active right then. That's about as far from a guess as advertising gets. We also don't inundate them with endless impressions. We've capped that at 2-3 per user. > Our targeting is simple, but ruthless. > It filters out the noise and goes straight to the heart of web3\. > Users who are wallet-connected, active, and your kind of user. **Now this is where your part comes in. You have to know who your user really is.** When a project sets up a campaign with us, they tell us which products their users are likely to have touched. Usually that's a product that does things similar to the way their product does things, or even identically. **The better a project knows its market, the sharper the targeting gets.** If you know exactly who your users are, and who you're really up against, we can put you in front of the people most likely to try you. If you're vague about it, there could be a lot of wasted impressions. We also leave out the users who are already yours. If a wallet has used your product in the last 45 days, it doesn't see the ad. You're not paying to reach users you already have. And if they have a slower rhythm than that, we can stretch that window. **Then we also have the returning user.** They are the ones who used you a few months back, got drawn in by the shiny new object, and drifted off. They're a slightly different story, but often bringing them back comes with big rewards. [50+ campaigns and everyone’s first ask is new users. It’s not where volume comes from.Your most valuable users already left once.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dd/d7/ddd7acdd-b0e2-462c-8132-53172eb6962a/content/images/icon/w3a-e31ea63a-d9cd-4155-b150-f62f6b193181.png)Web3-AdvertisingRoss Neilson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dd/d7/ddd7acdd-b0e2-462c-8132-53172eb6962a/content/images/thumbnail/Header-4-26a70e56-8f1b-46f9-9712-1b5d05cde409.png)](https://www.web3-advertising.com/50-campaigns-and-everyones-first-ask-is-new-users-its-not-where-volume-comes-from/) Final piece of the puzzle sits on the product's side. It still has to be easy for users to jump into your product. If someone lands on your product and hits a wall of friction, they're going to bounce, and you've most likely lost them for good then. With warm users it's easier, and they are already halfway there. But your product really has to do the heavy lifting of onboarding them, and [retaining them](https://www.web3-advertising.com/make-sure-you-dont-have-retention-backwards/). Last week I wrote about why we start everyone on a small test: a thousand dollars, fifteen thousand impressions. [Why we start everyone on a small testProof we can deliver, before you commit any real budget.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dd/d7/ddd7acdd-b0e2-462c-8132-53172eb6962a/content/images/icon/w3a-c0c8ede8-d396-4df8-b145-4d80301880a2.png)Web3-AdvertisingWayne Hattingh![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dd/d7/ddd7acdd-b0e2-462c-8132-53172eb6962a/content/images/thumbnail/Start-small-2-940acca8-4e80-4a75-9de5-4450d1f1c3b3.png)](https://www.web3-advertising.com/why-we-start-everyone-on-a-small-test/) This is what the test campaign runs on. Every one of those impressions goes to a connected wallet that has already done something close to what you want them to do. The impressions aren't wasted on a mass audience, they're used sparingly amongst active users. And after we run a test campaign, and we both deem it successful, you only pay for a new user, or the old ones we've brought back. Each one counts only once, irrespective of how many wallets they've used, or how many transactions they've done. How much you pay for each one of them is a different question. We know different users trade differently, and bring different value to your project. Some trade a little, some trade a lot, and some trade a little over a long time that becomes a lot. We decide who sees your ad by what they've actually done. What you pay for them can work the same way. More on that next week. [You can’t tell a good user from their first trade.The whale and the tourist look the same on their first trade. Only time tells them apart.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dd/d7/ddd7acdd-b0e2-462c-8132-53172eb6962a/content/images/icon/w3a-423be38e-b8bb-4aff-aac4-d1129802f674.png)Web3-AdvertisingMadusha Thilakarathna![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dd/d7/ddd7acdd-b0e2-462c-8132-53172eb6962a/content/images/thumbnail/judge-it-here---3-2-881b9341-8679-406e-b14a-070d4329e47f.png)](https://www.web3-advertising.com/you-cant-tell-a-good-user-from-their-first-trade/)