Baseline Conversion Rate
The conversion rate that occurs naturally without any paid advertising.
How many users convert organically through word-of-mouth, social media, search, or community discovery.
Why It Matters
All projects have a baseline conversion rate for any given group of users. Paid ads are a multiplying effect on top of this baseline, not the sole driver of conversions.
Without understanding your baseline, you can't measure true advertising effectiveness.
The Incrementality Connection
Your baseline is what the control group measures in incrementality testing. If 0.3% of users who don't see ads convert organically, and 0.6% who do see ads convert, your incremental lift is 100%—the ads added 0.3% on top of the 0.3% baseline.
Web3's High Baseline
Web3 protocols often have higher baseline conversion rates than traditional products because of:
- Constant discussion on Twitter, Discord, Telegram
- Active user discovery through protocol exploration
- Strong word-of-mouth in communities
- KOL mentions and organic coverage
- Users actively hunting for new opportunities
This high baseline means attribution without incrementality significantly overstates advertising impact.
Strategic Implications
Before scaling ad spend, understand your baseline through incrementality testing. A campaign with 1% attributed conversion rate might seem great, but if baseline is 0.9%, you're only adding small incremental lift (terrible ROI).
Projects with strong organic growth need to be especially careful about claiming credit for conversions that would have happened anyway.