intermediate
5 min read
Seasonality and Market Conditions
Adapting strategy to crypto market cycles
Web3 marketing performance varies with market conditions:
• • •
Bull markets
- Higher conversion rates (users are active and exploring)
- Better retention (users stay engaged longer)
- More competition (other protocols advertising too)
- Higher CPMs (increased demand for inventory)
Bear markets
- Lower conversion rates (users are cautious)
- Worse retention (users churn faster)
- Less competition (many projects cut marketing)
- Lower CPMs (less demand for inventory)
• • •
Strategy adjustments
- Bull markets: Scale aggressively, accept higher CAC
- Bear markets: Focus on efficiency, acquire at discounts
- Sideways markets: Test and optimize for next cycle
Track performance vs. overall market sentiment (BTC/ETH price, DeFi TVL, on-chain activity). If your metrics decline but market metrics are flat, that's a campaign issue. If everything is declining, that's market conditions.
Important Note
These are directional tendencies, not guarantees — strong targeting and messaging can still outperform market conditions at the margin.