What Is Incrementality & Why it Matters More in Web3?

Incrementality measures the causal impact of advertising by comparing outcomes between users who saw your ads and a matched control group who didn't.

It answers the question attribution cannot: "What would have happened if we did nothing?"

For example, if 1% of users who saw ads converted, and 0.2% of similar users who did not see ads also converted, the incremental lift is 0.8%.

This means 80% of attributed conversions are truly incremental, while the remaining 20% would have happened anyway.

This distinction matters more in web3 than in most web2 contexts.

Web3 ecosystems have higher organic discovery than most web2 products:

• Protocols are discussed constantly on Twitter, Discord, Telegram
• Influencers and KOLs create awareness organically
• Degens actively hunt for new opportunities
• Word-of-mouth is strong in tight-knit communities

As a result, baseline conversion rates (without ads) are higher than in many web2 contexts, especially for projects with existing PMF.

Without incrementality testing, advertising systems may simply claim credit for demand that already existed, overstating performance and leading teams to scale spend that is not actually driving new outcomes.